Archive for April, 2009

Trader and regrets

Posted by admin in orpenuel on April 23rd, 2009

For day traders instead of Paris, the 1st of April 2009 was staggering.

The day comes to addicts and violent movements of schizophrenic dose Supreme volatility on the index: -2% (one hour), then 2% (in 3h30), then -2% (in 3h30), and finally the ultimate thrill ecstatic: 3% in 30 minutes on the thread, just before close of business.

For swing traders and overnights in the trash, the day of 02 April 2009, following the euphoria of 1st April 2009 was no less juicy than panting.

The CAC opened in Bull Gap of 2%, and spread of 2% in less than two hours.

All values in the SRD exploded upward pressure … how insane a Jeroboam of several storeys built for Greek Titans: highest 15% were legion that day.

In short, between two short terminals 1 and 2 April 2009, there were 15% of volatility (increase + decrease in the expectation that no major waves, those of 2% peak to peak), and no less than 8 % volatility to rise only between the 01/04 – 15:30 and 02/04 – 11.30 … half a day listing!

Yet few are able to surf these curves divine.

The continual changes of direction, coupled with amplitudes out of the ordinary, left the majority of traders in a state of petrification, people on the sidelines by the dazzling shots.

And in those situations I remember these words uttered with Michel Audiard banter: “A financier, Sir, a financier, it never remorseful. Even no regrets … No, just the pétoche. ”

It’s hilarious, but partially wrong, because at the end of 2 April 2009, an incredible mass of traders will be thinking just whipped violently, like the members of Opus Dei, as they were steeped in regrets!

The investor works in such a way that it always seems to be the turkey ridiculous game of two fundamental errors: you buy … prices fall … you sell … they fly away …

Grrrr … it never seems to be in the right direction, or in the right place at the right time or the machine is ready regrets purring.

The regrets are the result of a slow process occurring “cold”: “Why did I buy this?”, “Why have not I sold earlier?”, “Why did not I buy?” … and portfolio review of missed opportunities is the generator Supreme regret that mobilize to no end almost all the cognitive resources. So how is dépatouiller with this pervasive feeling and not very productive?

In fact, we can not!

Many researchers are hard, applying the principle of Nietzsche: “Also, dig deeper! , Have discovered how our brains are structured investors.

And, recent research in neurobiology emphasize, that in our brains, there are neither more nor less than a real circuit specializes in regrets.

We are therefore naturally structured by Mother Nature, and natural selection to regret!

The reasons and the exact conditions of the establishment by the laws of evolution of these systems robust regret remain obscure.

Researchers cautiously whisper: “It is possible that avoidance anything that can be experienced as a loss probably helped our ancestors to stay alive. Survival at all costs through the questioning and regret in some way. ”

It will, after reading a lot of work on the subject, the degree of regret from the strictly financial assistance is determined not by what happened, but it would have could occur.

This psychological anchor to the unrealized potential is called technically against factual thinking. Regret, through the thoughts against factual, are oblivious to the submission of alternative imaginary worlds, and the intensity of regret is that easy to look into these worlds.

Regret is a pointless act, because as a comedian said: “We always regret anything … because you can only regret.”

Science, through advances in brain imaging, designated in our minds the exact spot where the maturation of our regrets done.

It is in the prefrontal cortex, particularly in the area of 10 Broadman, ie to simplify between the eyes, that is the arrangement of neurons malicious wrongdoing.

This area is 2 times greater in men than in higher animals, and it contains 4 times more neurons in men than in monkeys, for example.

In short, the bundle of nerve cells dedicated to regret is almost 10 times more dense in humans than other creatures!

It is known that this area of the brain maintains close ties with the ventromédian prefrontal cortex, a brain area essential for investors, which addresses the comparison between current earnings and earnings expectations …

Human beings brain, ie the victims of destruction of this area of the brain, become unable to work plan, evaluate, and deal with fear, they never sweat, no more than they have to change in pace and intensity of heart … brrr, to get cold in the back of these zombie finance!

For most market participants, regret is an amplifier of desire. This desire raises the risk-taking.

And increased risk taking, in turn, makes you fall in the class or you were sitting comfortably on tree gains.

Almost all the investors, under the yoke of the biological machine to regret that we abritons eventually believe in the impossible to win … otherwise exchange with the help of Dame Fortune!

This generates misunderstanding, loss of landmarks, and a greater need for search of meaning.

How this impulse can be satisfied?

Paul Léautaud That gives us the surprising key to this riddle: “Most of the links are made of left out and who meet all wrong regret” …

You come to understand the fundamental reason for the rush to the forums Scholars: here you will find the club of “regretteurs-anonymous” means all those who share their miseries, which have set the flame could be blown by financial gales.

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The industrial tribunals: the best and worst

Posted by admin in orpenuel on April 23rd, 2009

In the beginning of 2009 new members of industrial tribunals, elected late last year, will gradually move into their temporary job as a judge.

The industrial tribunal is a court composed only of professionals (managers and employees of enterprises), who sit in equal numbers (two employees and two employers in principle, half in proceedings for interim relief), and consider all labor disputes. The observation of the functioning of these boards for many years led to the following observation: this is the meeting in the same jurisdiction, the best and worst.

Start with the best.

About half of the cases before industrial tribunals (1) find a solution during the conciliation phase. Indeed, any tribunals begins with such a phase during which the judges are trying to find a solution acceptable to both sides and that could put an early end to proceedings. And the number of cases that do not go to trial shows that they fulfill that role very well.

The best is also the ability of advisers to decide the more simple. Counselors are familiar with the normal operation of enterprises and can quite easily unravel the disputes relating to such payment of wages, the enforcement of collective agreements, working time etc. ..

But unfortunately there is also the worst.

Judgments of industrial tribunals are reviewed in the event of an appeal by the Social Chamber of the courts of appeal. However, experience in social room shows a particularly sharp challenge of the tribunal to give advisers to the more complex a satisfactory outcome. From my own observations, examination of thousands of decisions tribunals in social rooms of three different appellate courts over a period of about ten years, unfortunately, requires the conclusion that in too many cases advisors render decisions that are either incomprehensible or insufficiently motivated or not, are legally outliers, that when the case raises complex issues. A lawyer specializing in employment law told me a few weeks ago, and about all these judgments are difficult to accept: “Going to the court of appeal we win or we lose, but at least in reading the decision we finally know why” .

What is regrettable is that these are individuals who are paying the price.

Go to the court of appeal because you do not understand the decision at first instance and, therefore, not able to meet again means spending large sums in legal fees, sometimes to reach a decision the same as or similar to that of first instance, but otherwise motivated, not to mention the inability to turn the page in a dispute finally settled. It also wait longer for the payment of sums when they are due.

Should we then blame the advisers prudhommaux even that court and ask its maintenance in such conditions? The answer is certainly negative. Because judges of the courts to go to industrial tribunals when counselors fail to agree (either because both are for a solution and two for another, either because they can not find the proper solution legally) find that most of these professionals have a strong desire to do well, would like to learn more about labor law and make better informed decisions, not to mention the sometimes very long time before they make their decision and they are the first to regret. In other words there is in many advisors prud’hommes much goodwill and a desire to do well but soon hit the limits of the exercise.

Therefore, since a court is clearly useful in principle, should be given to those professionals who, lest we forget, this exercise next to their business, much more time to grasp the extensive legal and complex labor law, including its evolving jurisprudence, because all this takes a long time.

It should, because once elected they will have to immediately write judicial decisions, work for which they are unprepared, they receive specific training and then again, they have the time needed to justify their decisions by taking into account where a judge spends so many hours they need at least twice more.

Furthermore, especially in small towns, they need a more extensive documentation than that available to them, knowing that such documentation must be available at home where they perform some of the work of drafting.

Finally, if we want to require them for the provision of high quality, it is imperative that their pay up to the difficulties they encounter, their efforts accordingly, and they especially could have a paid time sufficient to produce decisions of minimal quality.

Today we are far from this ….

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